The Cycle

The year is 1993 and Brian Mulroney is reading the day's Ottawa Citizen with a grimace while sitting at his desk. In the smoke filled office, he stands while several of his staffers sit, matching his grimace, with many of the lips punctuated by white cigarettes. The ashtrays in front of the men confessing their nervousness at this particular early meeting.

"This is terrible." Mulroney has a booming baritone voice that fills the room, snapping all of his staffers to attention. "These poll numbers, they're simply awful."

A pregnant pause fills the room, gently intermingling with the smoke of the Players Light cigarette in Hugh's hand. Unsure what to say, but stamping out the remnants of the cigarette and preparing to speak anyway, Hugh paused while Mulroney continued his bloviation, looking over the top of the broadsheet at his largely-yes-but-sometimes-no men. "I'm less popular than that... that worm Turner, and no one even remembers his name. My approval rating is at fifteen percent, Hugh, fifteen percent!"

"Well," Hugh says, clearing his throat, "last year it was twelve."

"Don't remind me of that mess. Look, fellas, Meech Lake is dead, Charlottetown is done. The GST, while necessary, is reviled. That traitor Bouchard is surging in Quebec, and don't even get me started about what's going on out West."

Hugh removed his glasses and rubbed his nose. Mulroney placed the paper down.

"That Clinton with his saxophone," Mulroney trailed off, "Things... this all was much easier with George. With George we got NAFTA done. We beat the Soviets. We had Quebec! Now what? These ungrateful– fifteen percent! The lowest approval rating since they started keeping track this says! And this, this is one of Conrad's papers! They're supposed to be on our side!"

Minutes pass in silence, with the occasional crackle of tobacco of Bill's cigarette, Tom's pen, scratching down notes. Hugh pulled out another Player's Light, the flick of a bic lighter adding to the din.

"Look at it this way," Hugh says, exhaling smoke, "It is historic. Maybe for the wrong reasons, but definitely historic. And in twenty years, you'll be a retired lobbyist. Maybe Ben will take over for you in the family trade, and you'll have a nice legacy. No one will remember twelve or fifteen percent, and they'll probably think it was more like thirty percent. They'll remember NAFTA, and I think if we maybe put someone else in now, it will take the pressure off of you, and give us a chance to not have a complete blow-out"

"I'm not so sure," Mulroney says, looking out the window on to Wellington Street. "Fifteen percent. What we need is a move that's truly, like you said, historic, more than my terrible polls and the GST, something to really go out on. Something really splashy."

"Nine years is a long time Brian. It's longer than most. I think it's time."

"All right, give Kim a call."

Not much can be said about Kim Campbell's tenure as Prime Minister.

While I wasn't exactly politically aware at the time of what was going on, I do remember it being somewhat of a big deal that Canada had a woman prime minister, and this was a good thing. She had a brief honeymoon period where voters who were somewhat conservative were willing to hear her out, though not for very long. Appointed by an unpopular prime minister and not elected by the people of Canada, she had assumed control over a government that was very clearly going to be completely annihilated in the next election.

The annihilation was all but complete, with the incumbent Progressive Conservative government left with two seats in the House of Commons, even losing official party status. Jean Chretien's Liberals swept in with a majority mandate, with the opposition formed by the separatist Bloc Quebecois, just edging out the newly serious Reform Party by two seats.

As a bit of trivia, the survivors from the PC party were Jean Charest, who would later serve as Liberal premier of Quebec, and Elsie Wayne, the weed hatin', gay bashin', pro lifin' conservative firebrand former mayor of Saint John. She would be elected in 1993 despite the blowout, and held her seat until her retirement in 2004. She seemed really awful.

Fast forwarding to today, I'm sure after completing the day's Wordle, Justin is looking at his poll numbers on the CBC news website, and realizing that things are looking pretty bleak for the Liberal Party.

With the resignation of Chrystia Freeland and Sean Fraser from cabinet, we are seeing the continued decline of Justin Trudeau's term as Prime Minister.

Today's cabinet shuffle adds several loyalists into key positions, his dream of a gender balanced cabinet all but out the window, he is likely preparing to finally bow to pressure and either resign outright, or call an election that he will likely lose.

Like Mulroney, his mandate is also in its ninth year, and is also quickly coming to a close as he attempts to alleviate the cost of living issues in Canada with a GST holiday "on select items" and an upcoming $250 cheque to "select" Canadians.

I agree with Freeland's assessment that 'gimmick' politics are a clear sign of desperation politics, and I regret that she is no longer in cabinet with a say in how the country is run. She was one of the few politicians who seemed to genuinely work across party lines to address the concerns of the Premiers. However, I do admire her principled stance, and agree with questioning how a cash strapped government plans to pay for both of the aforementioned planned economic actions, but I'm sure it's fiiiiiiiiiiiine, right?

Freeland joins Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott as another high ranking woman in his government to resign very publicly, causing massive embarrassment for the Liberal Party establishment. Though by now many have already memory holed the SNC-Lavalin affair which saw several levels of fuckery, but that seemed like a big deal at the time. And while it wasn't the end of Trudeau by any means, his top aid, Gerry Butts, was booted from Politics.

I do need to be honest and say that I am deeply dissatisfied with the current state of Canadian politics. It's no secret that Canada is in a perpetual cycle where we elect either a Liberal or Conservative government. We are, as an electorate, a vindictive and, yes, gullible people.

We like snappy catch phrases and nice haircuts!

We enjoy punishing our political class for their sins by electing their arch nemeses!

We adore being bamboozled by the Westminster system!

We refuse to change it because it involves too much math!

The point is that most Canadians don't like to think too hard about our government at their peril. We largely avoid paying attention until the next salacious scandal, or the election cycle begins again.

While I feel there is an inevitability to the Conservative Party of Canada's kick at the can, it's important to work locally to elect representation that you want to see. It's important to talk to your neighbours. Talk to your family. Find common ground and help them realize that these national and provincial political organizations that they may ascribe to out of tradition may not have their best interests at heart, may be seeking power for power's sake, and may be willing to make deals with unscrupulous individuals to do so.

Take care of yourself,

Matthew